My honest AGI timeline (with actual caveats)

Everyone wants a date, so here's mine with the caveat that timelines are mostly vibes: ~30% chance of something most experts would call AGI by 2032, ~60% by 2040. The bottleneck isn't raw capability — it's reliability and the long tail of reasoning. Today's models are spiky: superhuman at some tasks, oddly brittle at others. I'll believe "it's here" when a model can take a vague business goal, work autonomously for a week, and be trusted with the result. We're not there. But the slope is steep.