humanoid shipments up 270% and i still havent met one

by Tomasz W.

saw a report saying something like 19,000 humanoids shipped in the first half of this year, up about 270% on last year. and xpeng says batteries for its Iron robot are already in small batch production, ahead of their own end of year target 19k sounds like a lot until you think how many warehouses there are. where are they all going? genuinely asking, nobody i treat has worked next to one yet from my side the only number i care about is whether the heavy low picks go first. thats what fills my clinic. if theyre mostly in labs and showrooms then 270% is just a big percentage of a small number anyone here actually seen one on a real shift

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Lucas Muller 5 days ago

Tomasz, most of that 19k isn't on a shift yet. A big share goes to labs, universities and pilot cells, and a lot of it stays in China, where hundreds of different models are chasing the same early buyers. A pilot usually means two or three units in a fenced corner of one site while the integrator works out what breaks. The low pick from a floor-level pallet is actually one of the harder jobs for them right now. Bending, gripping something that shifts, standing back up with the load, at a pace that keeps up with a person. Most pilots start with totes at waist height because it's forgiving. So I'd judge it by repeat orders. A site that buys ten more after the pilot tells you far more than any shipment total. Your clinic will notice before the press releases do.

gregor.d 5 days ago

bus depot in glasgow here. no humanoids but we got a battery test trolley this year that does what two of us used to do every friday. nobody lost their job, we just stopped dreading fridays lol. bet the first ones that stick look that boring

Rhys Engel 4 days ago

Tomasz, I run a fulfilment site and we haven't had one through the door either. Nobody's offered a pilot I'd sign. Lucas is right that floor-level picks are the hard part, but I'd frame repeat orders a bit differently. A site buys ten more when the payback works. A unit has to cover its own cost, the integrator, and the person who walks over every time it stops. Our goods-to-person shuttles paid back in about 30 months. I haven't seen a humanoid quote I'd put under five years yet. gregor's trolley is the honest version of this. Kit that does one dreaded job well pays back fast and nobody argues with it. When a humanoid can do that for one task on one shift, I'll happily be first in the queue. Wouldn't surprise me if that's a couple of years away, not ten.

Mo R. 3 days ago

fit solar panels for a living, half our day is up a ladder on a wet roof. id genuinely love to see one try that lol. agree with gregor the boring stuff gets automated first