Who reaches AGI first — and does it even matter?

Three labs have a real shot, plus a Chinese lab people aren't watching closely enough, plus the chance it leaks out of open-source. But "first" may matter less than "safest and most deployed". Getting there first in a closed room helps no one. I'd rather see whoever can put it in a billion hands responsibly. Having founded through two hype cycles, my bet: the real winner won't be obvious until 18 months after the fact.