The AI boom's real ceiling isn't chips or models - it's megawatts, and we keep calling that someone else's problem
by Emma ThompsonI build climate hardware, so I watch this from the unglamorous end. Every AI roadmap assumes compute is the constraint. On the ground it's already power: interconnection queues in years, substations slower to permit than a model takes to train, data centres bidding against cities for the same megawatts. Same hype-curve shape I watched in climate a cycle ago: the exciting layer takes the capital; the boring middle - grid, storage, transmission - gets almost none, then becomes what everyone's blocked on two years later. My bet: the buildout ends up funding that boring middle to keep its lights on, and the grid teams nobody's staking today get quietly acquired in 2028. Is anyone pricing the power bill into their AGI timeline, or are we assuming the electrons show up?