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Startups & Founders 47 minutes ago

a trillion off ai chip stocks this week. good tbh

by Bram Yilmaz

so the big AI and chip names shed something like a trillion combined this week and my whole feed is doing the bubble-popped victory lap. not trolling but i think thats the wrong read. share prices of the people selling shovels arent the same thing as whether the shovels are any use. if anything a calmer market is good news if you're actually building: compute gets cheaper and the teams left standing have to show revenue instead of a roadmap. where id actually worry is the other case. if the selloff means the datacentre buildout slows down, the cheap inference everyone is pricing into their startup plan just doesnt turn up. so for the builders here, does this help you or hurt you? change my mind

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Callum Dubois 46 minutes ago

Bram, the shovel point is fair for the public markets, but it runs the other way for early-stage. When public multiples fall, late-stage rounds reprice first and it rolls downhill to seed about two quarters later. Anyone who raised at last year's numbers is looking at a flat or down round next time, whatever their inference bill does. So: already funded and profitable-ish, this week is mildly good for you. Raising in Q1, it's a harder room. I don't think that's a disaster. The founders I'd back anyway answer with numbers, and they tend to do fine when it's cold. Ask me in March how many term sheets I've actually seen.

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