AGI & Artificial Intelligence

Everyone wants a date, so here's mine with the caveat that timelines are mostly vibes: ~30% chance of something most experts would call AGI by 2032, ~60% by 2040. The bottleneck isn't raw capability…

Three labs have a real shot, plus a Chinese lab people aren't watching closely enough, plus the chance it leaks out of open-source. But "first" may matter less than "safest and most deployed". Getting…

I don't think there'll be a single moment — no alarm goes off. My test: a model makes a genuinely novel scientific discovery a human team would've taken years to find, and we can't…